New Piketty Book: Why Inequality is the Mother of All Problems

  • From David Kläffling
  • Reading duration 3 min

A historical analysis of French election results shows that it is not migration but primarily socio-economic factors that explain the rise of right-wing parties.

The current political debate in the European Union seems to prove former German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer right, who once called migration the 'mother of all problems'. A new book by French economists Julia Cagé and Thomas Piketty shows why this notion of the rise of far-right and right-wing populist parties is too short-sighted.

In their historical analysis, the two authors examine determinants of French electoral outcomes at the local level since the French Revolution. The rich cross-sectional variation of voter profiles in the 36,000 or so French municipalities allows for a precise examination of possible drivers of votes for right-wing parties, such as income, wealth, education, migration, or regional factors.

According to the study, two lines of conflict have become particularly relevant in recent years: the urban-rural divide and socio-economic status - represented by income, wealth, education and home ownership. Employees of the urban low-wage service sector tend to vote left, while (former) industrial workers in the countryside tend to vote for right-wing parties.

„In other words, the French political landscape can be described as follows: low-income urban voters, who tend to be mainly service industry employees and tenants, vote predominantly for the left, while working-class voters outside the main cities, who are mainly blue-collar workers and homeowners, are more likely to vote for parties of the far right.“

Moreover, the two authors show that the socio-economic structure of communities has never been more important in explaining electoral outcomes than in recent years. In the last presidential elections, socio-economic variables explained about 70% of the variation in votes, whereas in 1981 they explained only 50% and in 1848 only 30%. In contrast, migration plays a rather minor role - even for right-wing and extreme right-wing parties - contrary to the dominant view in the public debate.

“Socioeconomic issues are the main determinants of voting choices. If blue-collar workers have shifted towards the far right in recent years, it is above all because they have suffered disproportionately from globalised trade and deindustrialisation, and a lack of access to public services. From this point of view, they have felt abandoned by the left in power over the past 40 years in France. Of course, this can teach us lessons about what is happening today in other European countries. Throughout Europe, the left needs to convince voters that it can provide adequate protection against social, fiscal and environmental “dumping” – if necessary through unilateral action.”

From their findings, the authors derive clear policy recommendations. The public debate should put less emphasis on the issue of migration and instead focus on other policy areas. The provision of public services in rural areas, a pro-active regional policy against deindustrialisation, or measures against unequal access to property and the unequal distribution of wealth.

“Our findings do give cause for optimism: indeed, the lack of public services in rural areas, deindustrialisation, unequal access to property and widening inequality are all issues that can be addressed by implementing adequate policies. Identity politics, on the other hand, tends only to lead to increased tensions and conflict within society.”

A short summary of the analysis can be found here.